What I’m reading ~ 30/4/2017

  1. Here’s Why Juicero’s Press is So Expensive [Bolt]
  2. The downside of managing downside risk [Morningstar]
  3. A short guide to short selling [Dead Companies Walking]
  4. James Montier: market fair value is 50% lower [Finanz und Wirtschaft]
  5. 4 things that set successful CEOs apart [Harvard Business Review]
  6. Using Eisenhower boxes to improve productivity [Quartz]
  7. 3 ways to build a culture of better decisions [CFA Institute]
  8. Against all odds, the US tobacco industry is rolling in money [WSJ]
  9. Refuting the short thesis on Apple [Bireme Capital]
  10. Sprint said to look beyond T-Mobile for other deal options [Bloomberg]
  11. Losses are the new black [L2 inc]
  12. The unique advantage of equity investment [Fundsmith]
  13. Profile of the founder of Chobani [CBS]
  14. Millennials and credit: are we missing the real story? [FICO]
  15. On being special in investing [Reaction Wheel]
  16. What separates champions from ‘almost champions?’ [NYMag]
  17. The hedge fund manager that’s shorting America’s malls [WSJ]
  18. Hedge funds prize open Japan [Bloomberg]
  19. Coatue invests in Domino Data Lab [ZDnet]
  20. On the value of doing site visits in fund manager selection [Research Puzzle]
  21. An activist investment in Whole Foods exposes shifting power on Wall Street [NYTimes]
  22. How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor [Warren Buffet]
  23. Warren Buffett on why you should invest in productive assets [Holland Advisors]
  24. Seth Klarman: What I’ve learned from Warren Buffett [Holland Advisors]
  25. How PE funds “pump up” their returns.
  26. Facebook behaves like an old school monopoly
  27. A detailed analysis of H&M the Swedish clothing retailer
  28. Why price setting at online retailers these days is similar to High Frequency Trading [The Atlantic]
  29. Third Point Q1 2017

What I’m reading ~ 22/4/2017

  1. The Truth about Investing [Howard Marks’s memo]
  2. Lines in the Sand [Howard Marks’s memo]
  3. The Attention Merchants: The Epic Scramble To Get Inside Our Heads [Tim Wu]
  4. Why we think we’re better investors than we are [NYTimes]
  5. Warren Buffett & Jorge Paulo Lemann Talk at Harvard Business School: Brazil Conference [market folly]
  6. Inside the hotel industry’s plan to combat Airbnb [NYTimes]
  7. Two law professors mimic activist hedge fund: a corporate raiding adventure [The Atlantic]
  8. Vanguard is growing faster than everybody else combined [NYTimes]
  9. Q&A with Blackrock’s (BLK) Larry Fink [Bloomberg]
  10. Why Facebook (FB) keeps beating every rival: it’s the network of course [NYTimes]
  11. A look at the first decade of augmented reality [Ben Evans]
  12. Barry Ritholtz’s rules of valuations [The Big Picture]
  13. The making of a brand [Collaborative Fund]
  14. Is American retail at a historic tipping point? [NYTimes]
  15. E-commerce is a bear [Andy Dunn]
  16. American Express, challenged by Chase, is losing the ‘snob’ war [NYTimes]
  17. The potential of graphene to revolutionize the airline industry [Richard Branson]
  18. A day in the life of a food vendor [NYTimes]
  19. Paul Tudor Jones says US stocks should terrify Janet Yellen [Bloomberg]
  20. Passport Capital shuts down long/short hedge fund [Zero Hedge]
  21. Former Harvard money whiz tries to regain his edge [WSJ]
  22. Hedge fund investors are piling money into failing strategies [CNBC]
  23. New report shows 40% of funds created last year were systematic [Benzinga]
  24. Icahn’s big bet against biofuel credits [Reuters]
  25. The fall of Fortress [Institutional Investor]
  26. Balyasny’s tip to hedge funds at a crossroads [Bloomberg]
  27. How I invest my own money [Meb Faber]
  28. The Influence of Affluence [Mauldin Economics]

What I’m reading ~ 13/4/2017

Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms [David Evans]

Beating the odds when you launch a new venture [Harvard Business Review]

Consolidated learnings: What I think I know about investing [Medium]

Inside Blue Apron’s meal kit machine [Bloomberg]

Is it last call for craft beer? [NYTimes]

Americans haven’t been this optimistic about stocks for nearly two decades [Bloomberg]

The gap between sentiment and certainty is stunning [WSJ]

On the ramifications of Brexit [Arp Investments]

How Canada completely lost its mind over real estate [Macleans]

Why Costco (COST) loves store sales: you try shipping a tub of mayo [WSJ]

Q&A with Airbnb’s CEO Brian Chesky [Fortune]

Mobile video to grow almost 900% by 2021 Cisco predicts [Fierce Wireless]

Inside Verizon’s go90, a video app mix between YouTube and Netflix [Business Insider]

Your focus should be on saving money, not investment returns [Collaborative Fund]

Instagram (FB) ‘influencer’ marketing is now a $1 billion industry [MediaKix]

Quick video on Zara: How a Spaniard invented fast fashion [YouTube]

Yachtman: Stocks as Bonds; Case Study on Death [csinvesting]

The $260 Billion Portfolio Shaped by Bodybuilding, Scripture, and Slow-Thinking [BBG]

 

What I’m reading ~ 11/4/2017

  1. Kase Capital Short Wingstop
  2. Allan Mecham’s Arlington Value closes to new investors [ValueWalk]
  3. Sears and its hedge fund owner, in slow decline together [NYTimes]
  4. Eton Park shutdown shows how hedge funds are dying at an alarming rate [Fortune]
  5. Ryanair’s Low Cost Flywheel: Scuttleblurb Analysis [market folly]
  6. How to Beat the FX Market? Just Get on Twitter, Academics Say [BBG]
  7. Modelling France’s presidential election [The Economist]
  8. What If Other Areas of Life Operated Like Wall Street? [A wealth of common sense]
  9. Wall Street Made Charles Murphy Successful and Rich, but Happiness Eluded Him [WSJ]
  10. The Man Who Invented the World’s Most Important Number [BBG]

 

Daily wrap:

  • Tillerson: Russia Should Give Up ‘Unreliable Partner’ Assad (BBG)
  • U.S. tries to line up West, Mideast against Assad (Reuters)
  • United Airlines under fire after passenger dragged from plane; officer put on leave (Reuters)
  • Tillerson carries Syria stance to Moscow as Trump assumes West’s leadership (Reuters)
  • Investors Dump French Assets as Presidential Race Opens Up (WSJ)
  • Why Bond Bears Look Poised to Come Out of Hibernation…Again (BBG)
  • North Korean ships head home after China orders coal returned (Reuters)
  • 142-Year-Old Japanese Giant Toshiba Warns It May Not Survive (BBG)
  • Commercial-Property Lending Falls as Investors Pull Back (WSJ)
  • Qualcomm hits back at Apple’s lawsuit, accuses iPhone maker of false statements (Reuters)
  • U.K. Grocers Secretly Squeeze Customers as Brexit Bites (BBG)
  • Chinese cities restrict home sales by buyers to fight speculation (Reuters)
  • Pipeline Built to Survive Extremes Can’t Bear Slow Oil Flow (BBG)
  • Secret Recordings Play Role in SEC Probe of Insurer AmTrust (WSJ)
  • Yuan firms as dollar retreats; Macquarie forecasts no depreciation this year (Reuters)
  • U.S. judge finds Texas voter ID law was intended to discriminate (Reuters)
  • Sorry America, Your Taxes Aren’t That High (BBG)
  • Banks scramble to fix old systems as IT ‘cowboys’ ride into sunset (Reuters)
  • London Police Acted Illegally in Russia Cash Seizure, Court Says (BBG)
  • Toshiba files earnings without auditor endorsement, delisting risk rises (Reuters)
  • Grains piled on runways, parking lots, fields amid global glut (Reuters)

What I’m reading ~ 6/4/2017

  1. How moats make a difference [Intrinsic Investing]
  2. Boyar Research’s thesis on QVC and Madison Square Garden [Barrons]
  3. Autonomous cars and second order consequences [Benedict Evans]
  4. The hardest question in portfolio management [A Wealth of Common Sense]
  5. Diversification, adaptation, and stock market valuations [Philosophical Economics]
  6. Noise: how to overcome the high, hidden cost of inconsistent decisions [Harvard Biz Review]
  7. How Domino’s built a $9 billion empire [Bloomberg]
  8. How do winning consumer goods companies capture growth? [McKinsey]
  9. Airlines make more money selling miles than seats [Bloomberg]
  10. At Blackrock, machines are rising over managers to pick stocks [NYTimes]
  11. What’s next for malls? [Fashionista]
  12. Andrew Ng on what AI can and can’t do [Harvard Business Review]
  13. Margin debt hit all time high in February [WSJ]
  14. The 1% rule: why a few people get most of the rewards [James Clear]
  15. Is the US stock market an anomaly? (Alpha Architect)
  16. 15 obstacles we face as humans (Humble Dollar)
  17. “Bad news smashes your face against an amplifier, while good news just plays quietly in the background.” (Irrelevant Investor)
  18. Netflix is set to take over the stand-up comedy game with a new special every week for the rest of 2017 (Ringer)
  19. How being lazy helps make Michael Lewis successful (Inc)
  20. The Eighth Wonder (What I Learned on Wall Street)

Joel Greenblatt’s Talk at Google

From market folly

– He thinks the vast majority of investors should index rather than pick stocks.  That said, he doesn’t index and Warren Buffett doesn’t either.

– Greenblatt said people are still crazy (human behavior) and the market has wild rides (50% drops in recessions, tripling in value afterwards, etc).  So there’s an opportunity.  The key is obviously to buy when valuations are below average and sell when they’re above average.

– He tells his MBA students at Columbia Business School: “If they do good valuation work, I guarantee the market will agree with them… I just don’t know when.”

– “Stocks are ownership shares in businesses.”  Looks at how relatively cheap they are compared to other businesses, to history, etc.  Measure in absolute and relative value.

– Emphasizes being patient; market oscillates back and forth over the years.  Time horizons are shrinking so we’re playing time arbitrage.

– “Almost never have I bottom-ticked a stock.”  That means most of the time he’ll be down on a stock at some point.  There’s two reasons why: he’s either wrong or just needs more time for the thesis to play out.

– Greenblatt also wrote a book called The Big Secret that he joked is still a secret since no one read it.  But he’s also authored a wildly popular investing book with a cheesy title: You Can Be a Stock Market Genius

– “To beat the market you have to do something different.”

– Runs 100% net long but it’s typically achieved via 170% long and 70% short.  They determined the leverage amount based on returns.

– The market’s been cheaper 83% of the time based on current valuations.  Based on this, market could see 3-5% returns over the next year and then 8-10% over the next two.  Not a prediction though he said.

– “Stock investing is figuring out what a business is worth and paying less.”

– Harped on the importance of compound interest tables.  Start investing as early as possible.

– Thinks there’s still a lot of groupthink going on.  If you’re good at taking ‘unfair bets’ in obscure places that other people aren’t looking, you can do well.  But eventually you’ll have too much money to play in that arena anymore to have it move the needle.

– On Apple (AAPL): “I think it’s cheap relative to other choices right now.”

– “Your job is to be cold and calculating, and unemotional.  Unfortunately, people are human.  That’s good news for us, but the stats are against you.”

– “The last man standing is patience.  We call it time arbitrage.  That’s in really short supply.  It’s not getting better, things are moving faster… and less patience.”

– For more from this investor, we’ve also posted up Greenblatt’s interview with Consuelo Mack

Embedded below is the video of Joel Greenblatt’s talk at Google: